Bitcoin ‘Secondary Scare’ Now Playing Out, Warns Top Analyst Benjamin Cowen – Here’s How Low BTC Could Plunge – The Daily Hodl
Crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin (BTC) could fall further even after correcting by over 15% from its 2023 high reached last month.
Cowen tells his 785,000 YouTube subscribers that the current crypto downturn is in line with a pattern that occurs every four years.
“The idea behind the secondary scare in crypto comes from the fact that the S&P 500 [stock index] tends to get a correction in August or September of its [US] pre-election year.
So if you were to look at 2023, you can see that the S&P is in fact getting this correction that we talked about.”
The S&P 500 is down a little over 5% since the start of August.
According to the widely followed crypto strategist, Bitcoin has plummeted by between 39% and 83% during previous “secondary scares.”
“In 2019, once the secondary scare got underway, once we got below the 20-week moving average right or the weekly candle that led us below it, Bitcoin dropped another 61%…
This one 2015… it was about a 40% or 39% drop.
And then in 2011… you had an 82.5% drop before we actually finally bottomed out in the secondary scare…
In all three cases in the pre-halving year, the S&P dropped in Q3 of the pre-election year… And then Bitcoin entered into a downtrend for a while.
And we have three examples: one where we went down about 80%, one where we went down about 40% and one more we went down about 60%.”
On how low Bitcoin could fall going by historical precedent, Cowen outlines three scenarios.
“If it’s a 40% drop [similar to 2015]… 40% drop puts Bitcoin at $17,500, okay. That would be the lowest. This would basically correspond to this 2015 move. That would put Bitcoin at $17,500.
A 61% drop, which is what we experienced in 2019, would put it at around $11,400.
An 80% drop would put it much lower, which I will say I don’t think it’s going to go nearly that low.”
Bitcoin is trading at $26,423 at time of writing.
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